Author Topic: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"  (Read 4098 times)

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Offline 20Eyes

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"Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« on: December 19, 2010, 03:50:56 pm »
Quote
According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

These statements were made, by 'experts'... in 2000. Ten years ago.

It has snowed in the UK during every single year since then, with the winters of 2008, 2009 and 2010 being notable for the significant amount of snowfall.

Brilliant.
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Offline Ringer

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2010, 05:01:04 pm »
Good find, but I think the person in charge of the road gritting in Swindon may have a view on that?
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Offline Bogomil

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2010, 05:13:20 pm »
OK (and I know there’ll be some saying wagon wheels were bigger too) but although it was quite a few years ago, I still remember having weeks and weeks of snow ( and we still walked to school in wellington boots and then changed into our school shoes).
The country didn’t come to a grinding halt and people carried on.

These days any excuse not to go to work or have the kids off of school.

Offline Ringer

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2010, 05:16:58 pm »
Mars Bars were bigger and so were Tunnocks snowballs and tea cakes and cheese and onion crisps had a better taste, do you remember Dundee Biscuits?
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Offline Simon

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2010, 06:27:19 pm »
That old chestnut again.

It's Snowing So Global Warming Must Be A Myth.

No, the snow is weather, being what's happening today wherever you are. The climate is a global trend over centuries or millennia. One inaccurate prediction about weather from someone at the CRU doesn't change that.

Having said that I'm sure there's less snow these days than when I was younger. There's maybe a couple of inches of it here. I distinctly remember when I was very young, probably in the late seventies, my dad digging not so much a path, as a trench, through the snow on our drive from our front door to the road. I know I was a lot shorter then but even so, the snow was up to my waist.

Also one year (might have been the same year) I remember a blizzard during the Easter holiday. When was the last time we got snow in April?
We are all in this together, but some of us are more in it than others (with apologies to George Orwell)

Offline Ringer

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2010, 06:39:14 pm »
Also one year (might have been the same year) I remember a blizzard during the Easter holiday. When was the last time we got snow in April?

Are you tempting fate?
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Offline Simon

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2010, 06:49:42 pm »
Also one year (might have been the same year) I remember a blizzard during the Easter holiday. When was the last time we got snow in April?

Are you tempting fate?

I'm not sure that I'm capable of tempting an anthropomorphic personification which I don't even believe in  :santa_grin:
We are all in this together, but some of us are more in it than others (with apologies to George Orwell)

Offline moley

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2010, 07:09:28 pm »
I think it's fair to say that there had been less snow through the 90s and till about 2 years ago than I was used to growing up (but I think Northern Ireland gets more snow than the South West of England anyway).

However I can categorically say that there's been more snow in the last 2 years in this part of the world than the previous 20.....

And as for snow in April... there was some snow (in May) just after the Labour election victory in 1997 (I know because I was in California with work and everyone in the office was a bit jealous), and there was bad snow in Northern Ireland last year....

Fully agree with Simon though, you can't draw parallels between global warming and local weather patterns (I'm not taking a religious viewpoint here, just a logical position)

(And the people who said "no snow" didn't know what they were talking about.... the UK's comparatively mild weather is heavily influenced by the Gulf Stream, and climate change could potentially cause that to move...

Moley

Offline 20Eyes

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2010, 07:53:37 pm »
That old chestnut again.

It's Snowing So Global Warming Must Be A Myth.

No, it's not as easily dismissable as that, unfortunately.

This was a specific comment about snowfall made by a recognised expert on the subject. If such a person publically states that, "within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event" and then it snows every year for the next 10 years, one has to question their ability to predict such things.

I mean, I could go on record now and say it'll snow every year for the next 10 and be virtually guaranteed to have a better strike rate than Dr David Viner in 10 years time and yet I know virtually zero about the climate in comparison. That seems odd.

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Offline Bogomil

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2010, 09:01:16 pm »
Had some old friends reminiscing the other day and moaning that they never got as much snow as they remember when they were kids…..

I told them its was their own fault for moving to f*@king Africa….  :santa_cheesy:

Offline Simon

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2010, 09:04:24 pm »
That old chestnut again.

It's Snowing So Global Warming Must Be A Myth.

No, it's not as easily dismissable as that, unfortunately.

Yes, it is. You are clearly failing to understand the difference between weather and climate, despite my best efforts.

This was a specific comment about snowfall made by a recognised expert on the subject. If such a person publically states that, "within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event" and then it snows every year for the next 10 years, one has to question their ability to predict such things.

That was a prediction about weather, made by a climate scientist. And they got it wrong. As do weather forcasters on a regular basis.

Our climate is changing thanks to our addiction to burning fossil fuels. The majority of the scientific community agrees with me on this point.

I'd like a habitable planet to retire to if I live to the retirement age. Wouldn't you like the same 20eyes?
We are all in this together, but some of us are more in it than others (with apologies to George Orwell)

Offline moley

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2010, 09:35:46 pm »


Our climate is changing thanks to our addiction to burning fossil fuels. The majority of the scientific community agrees with me on this point.


The part that very few scientists are actually agreed on is in what way the climate will actually change in a particular locale...

I think your point about weather forecasting is actually very apt... if you looked at the different forecasts for this area at the weekend, they ranged from a bit less snow than we had to the apocalyptic... everyone is working to some kind of model and some of them are clearly not perfect.

One area that I've a problem with is that extremists on both sides of the climate debate are the people who seem to get the big pay-cheques on the after-dinner circuit (irrespective of how good their science actually is).

(For the record, I do believe that climate change is occurring, I believe that many resources are finite and as a consequence of the two that we probably should look at reducing our carbon consumption).  But I think that there is some bad science and scaremongering at the extremes on both sides of the debate.

Moley

Offline 20Eyes

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2010, 10:36:33 pm »
Yes, it is. You are clearly failing to understand the difference between weather and climate, despite my best efforts.

My point had nothing to do with climate change - something which IS happening and which will continue to happen, it would be crazy for anyone to deny it.

The angle here is that when 'experts' make such bold and emotive claims, such as children won't know what snow is within a few years, it tends to make people question just how 'expert' they really are when those predictions - presumably based on something - are so demonstrably and laughably incorrect.

If the senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia doesn't know how to get a basic weather prediction right, why the hell make such an stupid statement in the first place? Talk about needlessly undermining your own credentials.

That was a prediction about weather, made by a climate scientist. And they got it wrong. As do weather forcasters on a regular basis.

But, as I said above, if I say it will snow every year for the next 10 years I will almost certainly have a better prediction rate than a so-called expert. That doesn't seem too logical to me.

Our climate is changing thanks to our addiction to burning fossil fuels. The majority of the scientific community agrees with me on this point.

Out climate is changing, and will continue to, for many reasons. Human beings inhabiting the planet will, as with any other species, have some impact. I've long since believed that the planet is not 'ours' and that we have no right to assume we will be able to inhabit it for eternity - in fact, to think so would be naive in the extreme.

I'd like a habitable planet to retire to if I live to the retirement age. Wouldn't you like the same 20eyes?

I'd like the planet to be habitable for humans for several centuries yet. I don't see it in terms of myself, or that other horrible cliche 'our children's children', I see it in terms of human beings rising to the challenge of using our skills and ingenuity to ensure that we're able to sustain the species for as long as possible.

There are many ways that might be achieved, most of which will eclipse any amount of re-using our supermarket approved 'bag for life'.
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Offline szn

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2010, 12:05:05 pm »
The cause of the past 3 cold winters is not determined. Two candidates are:

Solar Minimum
The intensity of the sun's output cycles in an 11 year cycle. It's too small to affect global temperature much, but it is suggested that the low part of the cycle affects the Jet Stream in winter. We have been in an unusually low solar minimum for the past 3 years so it's possible that this is the cause of all this cold air from the arctic in recent winters. If this explanation is true then the met scientist is probably right - snow will become rarer as the UK warms in coming decades, but we might get cold snaps if there are any more low solar minimum years.

Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Another idea is that arctic sea ice loss, due to warming in the arctic, is through a complex chain of events altering weather systems in the arctic and that is why in winter we are receiving northerly winds. If this is true it would mean the met office guy is wrong and in fact winters like this will become more frequent as the world warms.

Offline 20Eyes

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2010, 12:12:01 pm »
If enough people make enough gueses, one of them will likely be right - but who would ever know they were right?

There's a classic Monbiot piece in the Guardian at the moment, where he suggests that the cold winters we've had recently are evidence of Global Warming. Several people point out in the comments section that four years ago he was suggesting that the run of fairly mild winters we'd had were evidence of Global Warming.

As a a person posted on the comment section, 'So, even when you're wrong, you're right'.
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Offline Mart

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #15 on: December 26, 2010, 11:19:45 pm »
I think you'll find the muppets at East Anglia are the ones who got caught cooking the statistical books vis a vis global warming.

Ain't had a fair on The Thames this year, bloody near 400 years since the last one, Muggins will tell you. Therefore it is only a matter of millennia before Benelux is under water. What a shame that will be.

I think Global Warming is 10% truth, 40% lunatics who got fed up looking for UFO's, 40% an interesting new stream for Government revenue and the rest is Al Gore's income.
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Offline Muggins

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #16 on: December 27, 2010, 08:39:56 am »
You're all in de Nile - or you will be soon - up to your necks that is.

Cheeky thing you - 400 years?
Lifes not always fair. Sometimes you can get a splinter even sliding down a rainbow. - Cherralea Morgen

Offline Mart

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #17 on: December 27, 2010, 09:56:32 am »
The frost fair of 1814 began on 1st February, and lasted four days. An elephant was led across the river below Blackfriars Bridge. A printer named "Davis" published a book, Frostiana; or a History of the River Thames in a Frozen State. This was to be the last frost fair. The climate was growing milder; also, old London Bridge was demolished in 1831 and replaced with a new bridge with wider arches, allowing the tide to flow more freely; additionally, the river was embanked in stages during the 19th century, which also made the river less likely to freeze.

Alright, couple of hundred years. Interesting that the effect of the motor car on the climate was so profound, so profound in fact. that global warming started 20 years before the bloke that invented the motor car was even born. Truth to be told it was probably farting horses.

Or nature doing it's thing.
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Offline Muggins

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2010, 10:37:01 am »
Well, they have discovered that animals to add an amazing amount to global warming, saw a bit on the tele the other day about the Dutch introducing insect protein as an alternative.  But like I said to Mr Muggins as there are even more insects, how do we not know tha their collective 'outgoings' don't amount to the same or more than mammals?

Doing a nice line in locust lunches in Holland. I don't mind taking my protein that way so ling as it's crushed up in a Bourbon.
Lifes not always fair. Sometimes you can get a splinter even sliding down a rainbow. - Cherralea Morgen

Offline Simon

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Re: "Children just aren't going to know what snow is"
« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2010, 05:42:03 pm »
Interesting that the effect of the motor car on the climate was so profound, so profound in fact. that global warming started 20 years before the bloke that invented the motor car was even born.

 :santa_rolleyes:  you're being obtuse again.

The industrial revolution was well under way by then. It didn't start with the car.
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